Nerdy sports stuff...

[mjr]

Here's an interesting one for you guys who are interested in American Football...Assuming I didn't screw up...

Of the 48 Super Bowls to date, only 10 teams have won with fewer rushing yards than their opponents.

A full 79.167% of teams have won the Super Bowl when they have rushed for more yards than their opponent. The closest yardage differential, rushing, in a Super Bowl was -1, in Super Bowl III ("The Guarantee" game).

Over the course of that 48 years, the average rushing yards for the winning team has been almost 143. This, of course, is skewed by some big rushing yardages in a few Super Bowls (Washington's 280 in Super Bowl XXII leading the way). The average yards allowed over the 48 Super Bowls is almost 88 yards (roughly 87.48).

Even looking over the past twelve years or so, since the NFL expanded to 32 teams, the total number of teams winning the Super Bowl when they have more rush yards than their opponents is around 75%. Nine out of twelve.

So fans and prognosticators can scream about how it's a "quarterback's league" all they want. Data shows that to win in the NFL, and to win championships, you still need a run game.

Here's a little more...

Total Games: 48

The stats below are based purely on Yardage. Make of them what you will.

Number of teams that have won when they have outrushed their opponents: 38 (79.17%).
Number of teams that have won when they have out-passed their opponents: 23 (47.92%).
Number of teams that have won when they have outrushed AND out-passed their opponents: 16 (33.33%).
Number of teams that have won when they have outrushed, but NOT out-passed their opponents: 22 (45.83%)
Number of teams that have won when they have out-passed, but NOT out-rushed their opponents: 7 (14.58%)
Number of teams that have won when they have neither out-passed NOR out-rushed their opponents: 3 (6.25%)

And another interesting tidbit...since the NFL expanded to 32 teams in 2002, the stats get even more interesting.

The following is based on 12 Super Bowls.

Number of teams that have won when they have outrushed their opponents: 9 (75%).
Number of teams that have won when they have out-passed their opponents: 4 (33.3%).
Number of teams that have won when they have outrushed AND out-passed their opponents: 3 (25%).
Number of teams that have won when they have outrushed, but NOT out-passed their opponents: 6 (50%)
Number of teams that have won when they have out-passed, but NOT out-rushed their opponents: 1 (8.33%)
Number of teams that have won when they have neither out-passed NOR out-rushed their opponents: 2 (16.67%)

Just some nerdy sports stuff to start your day...

[Jester]

The problem with stats like that is they don't always tell the whole story.

For example, if a team has a big lead, it is more likely to rush the ball and grind the clock later in the game, to keep the ball away from the opposing team's offense. So the total rush yards may not be truly indicative of how the game went. On the flip side, a team that is down late, especially if they're down big late, are going to be passing more to try to get back in the game, and to save time for future possessions if they score. Which will skew the final stats.

[mjr]

The problem with stats like that is they don't always tell the whole story.

For example, if a team has a big lead, it is more likely to rush the ball and grind the clock later in the game, to keep the ball away from the opposing team's offense. So the total rush yards may not be truly indicative of how the game went. On the flip side, a team that is down late, especially if they're down big late, are going to be passing more to try to get back in the game, and to save time for future possessions if they score. Which will skew the final stats.

What you say is true, Jester. Stats never really do tell the whole story. However, they do tell part of the story (which is why they're kept). They are somewhat a measure of performance.

The data is more to illustrate how much of a factor the rushing game still is in the NFL, even with lots and lots of people screaming about how much of a "Quarterback's League" it is.

What I find interesting, though, is the percentages remain somewhat close, even when it's narrowed down to the past twelve years or so.

[Jester]

But my objections remain. In blowouts, the rushing stats of the leading team and the passing yardage of the trailing team are going to be inflated. Now, to be fair, very few of the last dozen Super Bowls were blowouts, but that fact does remain.

I mean, if you compared Manning's stats to Wilson's, you'd swear Manning's team had won....but of course, they didn't. Stat inflation at its finest.