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The absurdly low odds of picking a perfect Basketball Tournament bracket...

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  • The absurdly low odds of picking a perfect Basketball Tournament bracket...

    No, this isn't your year...

    Chances of picking the first round perfectly: 2^32, or 4,294,967,296 to 1.

    Chances of getting a perfect bracket to the Sweet Sixteen (i.e. picking the first two rounds perfectly): 2^48, or about 281,474,976,710,656 to 1. (281 trillion to 1)

    Chances of being perfect through the "Sweet Sixteen" (to the Elite Eight):

    2^56, or 72,057,594,037,927,936 to 1 (over 72 quadrillion to 1).

    To be perfect through the "Elite Eight":

    1,152,921,504,606,846,976 to 1 (1.15 quintillion to 1)

    So a perfect bracket is 2^63, or 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 (9.2 quintillion to 1).

    Though, realistically, some data can be used to bring that down to a few billion to 1, but still very unlikely to happen.

    My current workplace has a contest every year where the person who is perfect the farthest wins a prize, and if anyone is perfect either to (or through, I forget) the Sweet Sixteen wins $1 million.

    Highly unlikely.

    I don't follow college sports, really, but I picked Gonzaga to win over Virginia this year.

    And I picked a couple of upsets along the way.
    Skilled programmers aren't cheap. Cheap programmers aren't skilled.
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