The recession is over! The recession is over! Wait, what?

[CrazedClerkthe2nd]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091029/..._fi/us_economy

Apparently the "experts" believe the recession is over and America is growing again.

I don't know about you folks, but I haven't seen much economic recovery around here.

[Green_Fairy]

...if the recession is over, then why are there sooooo many empty businesses? silly silly people.

[draggar]

...if the recession is over, then why are there sooooo many empty businesses? silly silly people.

I was thinking the same thing when we were driving on Route 1 though Pompano Beach last week - so many empty businesses.

Plus, my wife still doesn't have a job. I know it takes time but it's been 17 months now.

[rvdammit]

It works something like this, I think.

A business losing money means that it has a negative effect of the overall money made by all business. When it closes, or returns to profit it no longer has that negative effect. Recession ends when the overall becomes positive change from the last measure.

[Caveat Emptor]

I believe a recession is defined as "two or more quarters of negative real economic growth." Likewise, I haven't heard or seen signs of any real change.

[Green_Fairy]

i heard that the amount of people enlisting for the military are higher than they have been in a loooooong time because it's a steady job. guaranteed paycheck. kinda scary, if you think about it...

[persephone]

I was reading an article the other day that mentioned people thinking the recession is over because consumer spending was up the last quarter. However, people forget that there were things like Cash for Clunkers and the new homeowner's credit that were causing people to spend. Once those incentive's go away, will the numbers go back down?

I think it's too early to tell if it's over yet.

[trailerparkmedic]

My little sister graduated from college in May and still doesn't have a job, and she's been looking since last December. I'll believe the recession is over when more than half of my friends aren't stuck living with their parents anymore.

[NateTheChops]

Oh it's still there. They just changed the name "recession" into "H1N1."

[SG15Z]

Is it over? Uh no. Just cause we're recovering doesn't mean the recession is over, it just means it's getting better. If profits went back up, that's good for the businesses, but unemployment is still pretty bad. It's still really hard to get a job, and many grocery stores around here are still cutting hours (like my store) even though sales have actually gone up. Every recession (and depression for that matter) has both downs and ups. It'll be awhile before we know for sure.

If it is over, then that was a really really short recession.....

[cinema guy]

I believe a recession is defined as "two or more quarters of negative real economic growth."

That is correct. However just because the recession has ended, doesn't mean things are good. It just means the economy has fallen as far as it's going to fall. Getting back to the top again could be a long slow climb.

However, people forget that there were things like Cash for Clunkers and the new homeowner's credit that were causing people to spend. Once those incentive's go away, will the numbers go back down?

Could do. Taking away the things that are helping the recovery too soon could be detrimental. Likewise government spending cuts too early may have the same effect.

Of course no two economists can agree on what is best.

And even though most of the western world is coming out of recession, the UK is still in it.

[Dips]

Economics and politics are too intertwined for this not to turn political. Therefore it's probably best to have this discussion on Fratching.